Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.211343 2.577738 2.983897 3.467255 4.026590 4.653291 5.408607
2026-01-11 1.625088 2.110302 2.706101 3.490323 4.494379 5.735871 7.386919
2026-01-18 1.255517 1.782133 2.485452 3.490792 4.888403 6.760095 9.455024
2026-01-25 1.001849 1.533638 2.296207 3.464784 5.205634 7.697928 11.532147
2026-02-01 0.777774 1.272800 2.028563 3.259752 5.208372 8.165425 12.984577
2026-02-08 0.632506 1.098772 1.851586 3.146619 5.309464 8.765171 14.690989
2026-02-15 0.537397 0.985606 1.746923 3.122733 5.534633 9.571095 16.816304
2026-02-22 0.484615 0.933922 1.733188 3.243747 6.010863 10.840022 19.872945
2026-03-01 0.420090 0.848620 1.645108 3.215694 6.214843 11.659994 22.248323
2026-03-08 0.363311 0.767493 1.550618 3.158145 6.350644 12.366715 24.500233
2026-03-15 0.322433 0.710503 1.492445 3.159344 6.593895 13.295757 27.281862
2026-03-22 0.310666 0.711615 1.549028 3.396959 7.334675 15.266443 32.341614
2026-03-29 0.281147 0.671165 1.517484 3.454988 7.733499 16.646728 36.475849
2026-04-05 0.254385 0.632567 1.484712 3.507421 8.133366 18.093675 40.976795
2026-04-12 0.228021 0.590116 1.436620 3.518150 8.443880 19.395380 45.354074
2026-04-19 0.203052 0.546379 1.378313 3.495477 8.674261 20.551815 49.569513
2026-04-26 0.171143 0.478989 1.252403 3.289828 8.442143 20.632913 51.330887
2026-05-03 0.148698 0.432133 1.169232 3.176064 8.414344 21.181030 54.266244
2026-05-10 0.133492 0.402113 1.124032 3.152093 8.607320 22.280991 58.693176
2026-05-17 0.126271 0.393339 1.133449 3.274263 9.196188 24.431755 66.040158
2026-05-24 0.113833 0.366893 1.090369 3.245969 9.380050 25.582713 70.973924
2026-05-31 0.101799 0.339343 1.039634 3.187898 9.473673 26.511990 75.451569
2026-06-07 0.093080 0.320484 1.010942 3.189110 9.734533 27.920754 81.418595